The modern
almanac for
software engineering
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Will AI replace your job or make it more valuable? Will Rust salaries rise? Will junior hiring recover? 55 predictions, updated daily from 17+ sources — career decisions based on evidence, not anxiety.
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54% means roughly 54-in-100 chance. Near 50% = genuine uncertainty — we quantify what we don't know, not just what we do.
The next major arXiv paper on AI code generation will report >75% on HumanEval+ before April 20, 2026
What the data says about your career
The three questions every software engineer is asking right now — with probabilities, not opinions.
More developers, not fewer
Our models suggest total developer headcount will likely GROW by 2030. Every previous automation wave expanded employment in the affected sector.
Systems skills pay more
Rust, C++, and kernel development will command higher premiums as AI handles high-level code generation. Deep technical skills become more valuable, not less.
The floor drops, the ceiling rises
Bottom-quartile developer salaries likely decline as AI commoditizes routine work — but Staff+ engineer pay is expected to rise 20%+. The gap widens. Upskilling matters more than ever.
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Yesterday's deep anxieties over geopolitical cloud fragility materialized into hard infrastructure failures today, with an Iranian missile blitz taking AWS Availability...
By 2030, >30% of professional developers will primarily use AI tools from a NON-US company (DeepSeek, Mistral, etc.)
New node-splitting models remove hardware barriers for Chinese models like DeepSeek V3, explicitly accelerating their adoption among developers.
Active Predictions
55 falsifiable forecasts with daily Bayesian updates
Systems programming skills (Rust, C++, kernel development) will command a HIGHER salary premium relative to web development by 2030 than in 2025
The cost per token for frontier coding models will drop by >90% between 2025 and 2028
By 2028, 'AI debugging' specialists — engineers who primarily diagnose and fix AI-generated code — will be a recognized job category at >10 major tech companies
The 'AI software engineer' job title will be among the top 5 fastest-growing tech roles in the US by 2028
By 2030, >30% of professional developers will primarily use AI tools from a NON-US company (DeepSeek, Mistral, etc.)
Multimodal AI coding tools that accept screenshots, diagrams, and voice input will capture >25% of the AI coding tool market by 2029
By 2030, AI coding tool revenue growth will have plateaued below 15% YoY, resembling the RPA hype cycle
The median salary premium for 'AI engineering' skills will fall below $10K by 2029 as AI fluency becomes table stakes
How it works
Ingest
AI agents scrape 17+ sources — arXiv, Hacker News, job boards, GitHub, RSS feeds, Reddit, prediction markets.
Analyze
Signals filtered and synthesized. Every claim source-linked. Every prediction gets a confidence score with likelihood ratios.
Forecast
Bayesian updates with 0.3 dampening. 10 AI personas with different worldviews vote independently. Max 5pp daily move.
Building a Track Record in Public
Every prediction was committed to git before the pipeline started running — timestamps are public and verifiable. Every daily update is a git commit you can audit.
We have a hindcast (backtest) of 20 historical events scoring Brier 0.155 — but we're honest that backtest is not a track record. We'll publish our first live calibration curve when 50+ predictions resolve.
Data Sources
17+ feeds monitored daily
The future updates daily.
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